1. Introduction: consumption patterns and the food system

Chapter I focused on describing and characterizing the evolution and the current structure of the world food system. Such characterization includes a clear differentiation between two subsystems: one represents the demand for food by consumers; the other comprises both the production and economic processes that make food supply possible and the economic and socio-economic players who carry them out.

This chapter seeks to characterize and identify the main problems and challenges affecting the subsystem made up by food demand and consumption.

Food consumption patterns have evolved throughout the history of humanity, particularly rapidly in the last 50 years, hand in hand with the globalization process. Current diets, which are the result of such world-scale transformation, are now questioned on the basis of some parameters considered deficient for the consumers’ nutritional needs and, in the case of meat, because of its potential environmental impact.^[1]

As a result of this critical perspective, some recent literature has suggested that the current global food system is a total failure in terms of providing adequate food to the world population. The argument is based on two main assertions: a) even today, there is a significant number of underfed persons, and b) current diets are linked to an increase in the occurrence of non-infectious pathologies associated with food, such as obesity, diabetes, hypertension and coronary diseases.

While it is true that currently there are serious food insecurity problems and a growing incidence of diet-linked health problems, the conclusion that the food system is a failure is, at the very least, an exaggeration. From a different, probably more balanced view, several arguments may be put forward.

As pointed out by the OECD, the food system was able to increase production to feed a rapidly growing world population, which went from approximately three billion persons in 1960 to more than seven billion eight hundred million in 2020. This marked increase in food production (over two and a half times) was made possible by a huge productivity increase in some crops and regions of the world, mainly as a result of the technology generated in the Green Revolution led by the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR).^[2]

This was achieved, particularly from the 90s, by significantly increasing the productivity of the factors of production rather than by expanding the cultivated area.

This increase in production and the resulting international trade allowed for a better global use of the scarce natural resources, yielding a significant reduction in food prices.

It is important to emphasize that, in general, food insecurity is mainly associated with lack of income and, thus, with the impossibility of obtaining food that is available on the market. Hunger in the world is more a consequence of poverty than of food shortage.

In recent years, life expectancy has increased substantially. Between 1950 and 2020, it rose from an average of about 46 years to approximately 72 years. This represents an 24-year increment in life expectancy over a period of only 70 years. These figures, which represent a world average, conceal large differences between countries. National averages range from a life expectancy of around 52 years for some poor and developing countries to a maximum of 90 years in Andorra, the country with the highest life expectancy. This figure fluctuates between 75 and 83 years in most developed countries, where current diets include a significant proportion of nutritionally challenged and highly industrialized products, such as animal products, sugar and flours. While it is true that the notable advances achieved in connection with science and technology, medicine, the construction of drainage systems, waste management, and drinking water, among others , explain a good part of such increase in average longevity, this could not have happened if the food consumed had not been reasonably appropriate for the biological needs of human beings.

These arguments do not mean that the current situation is either good or the most desirable. Obviously, it is not, and it is important and necessary to make progress in many areas for the world population to adopt healthy diets for a longer, quality life. Investing greater monetary and political resources in pre-emptive education on diet quality, as well as in every dimension of environment protection, is an essential measure.

To make progress in that direction, it is key to understand consumption pattern trends and to identify the actual problems, both present and future, through a balanced analysis based on scientific evidence. This may constitute the proper basis for making proposals and defining the necessary policies and actions to develop consumption patterns in line with human health requirements.

2. Food demand as an autonomous phenomenon

In 1994, on the occasion of the UN World Conference on Food Security, in which FAO played a key role, member countries agreed that food security was a fundamental right of humanity and a key objective of global development. In other words, countries undertook to work, both individually at the local level and collectively at the world level, to eradicate hunger in the world.

This historic commitment raised the issue of food security to the highest domestic and international policy level. The commitment was amply ratified and instrumentalized in 2015 with the approval of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), which became the route map for development at every level.

A first point to be stressed in an analysis of food is the difference between agriculture and food. In the modern world, the better part of food production is differentiated and physically far from its consumption. As a result, the diet does not depend on what each consumer produces, but rather on what such consumer can obtain in the market.

Accordingly, the demand for food is an autonomous and subjective phenomenon that depends on the individual decisions of millions of consumers choosing how much and what to consume. Each diet choice is determined, as regards its qualitative features, by the consumers’ subjective preferences, which are linked to cultural patterns and personal tastes.

Furthermore, the actual demand, i.e., what consumers actually buy and consume, is the result of the interaction between what they would like to consume, and the physical accessibility and cost/price of the various foods available to them. These conditions, accessibility and price, are determined by the features and operation of the food system, including public policies and the market. Accordingly, the physical accessibility and the market price of the various foods available to consumers, especially urban ones, are key determiners of a food system’s effectiveness.

3. Globalization in food consumption patterns

In the beginning, food consumption patterns were determined by local availability. Primitive cultures with no trade, technology or scientific knowledge and very close to the rural environment ate whatever they could gather, hunt, grow rudimentarily or raise with their own local natural resources. These characteristics of food acquisition in rural environments forged local food patterns, which became key items of the habits and cultural particularities of the population in the various world regions.

Globalization — slow in its early stages and extraordinarily rapid in the last 50 years —, human migrations, tourism and information have diluted these local food patterns, globalizing the consumption of certain foods that soon became generally and deeply accepted. Spaghetti, bread, rice, potatoes, coffee and, in a sense, animal products are examples of food items whose consumption became substantively globalized and which have become staples in the diet of most countries and regions.

This phenomenon of global diet standardization was made possible by international trade and by the price relationships which emerged between the various types of food, providing greater access to them. Furthermore, this worldwide standardization was accompanied by two additional components: an increase in the consumption of food with some measure of industrial processing and a high — and growing — proportion of consumption outside the home, a phenomenon that resulted from changes in family roles and work opportunities.

This globalization of consumption and the changes in its basic qualitative features are the results of many factors that transformed not only food consumption patterns, but also the entire world food system, taking it to its current situation.

The factors that caused the greatest specific impact on food consumption patterns have been those mentioned in Chapter I: rural/urban migration; growing urbanization; the increase in income levels, particularly of urban inhabitants; tourism; technological developments in the agro-industrial processing sector; and trade. All of them have also been crucial for the evolution of the subsystem that comprises all processes related to food supply.

In addition to these factors, concerning changes in consumption patterns, it is particularly worth mentioning the entry of women into the labor market. A direct consequence of this phenomenon was the reduction of available time, material possibilities and personal choices, limiting women’s possibilities to carry out household activities, including the time devoted to the purchase and processing of food at home. This resulted in a trend to simplify home-made food and increase consumption of industrially processed food. The time and financial resources used to buy ready-made food and to eat out at restaurants have also increased exponentially, which resulted in a quicker homogenization of consumption patterns.

The final impact of this set of phenomena has been the incipient universalization of certain culinary cultures, which gradually became global food patterns for vast sectors of the world population. This trend will no doubt intensify over time and strengthen global value chains, both of primary commodities and of processed foods, generating more food trade worldwide.

While the COVID-19 pandemic has put a stop to these globalization processes, it is to be expected that, once the pandemic is over, the same trends will reappear again.

4. The nutritional qualities of food: some areas of disagreement

In recent years, a new concern has emerged around food quality, its relationship with human health, and the impact of food production on the environment.

These issues were pre-eminent within the context of the UN Food Systems Summit, which stressed the importance of achieving a food consumption pattern that is more compatible both with human health requirements and withenvironmental sustainability.^{[3] [4] [5]}

The concern over the current diet arises primarily because of the imbalance in its various components. The three main criticisms from the point of view of nutritional quality are: (a) increased consumption of animal proteins in high-income populations of developed countries; b) diets with high caloric content which, combined with a more sedentary life, lead to overweight. This problem is associated with the growing share of highly processed products that contribute to high-calorie diets; c) insufficient intake of fruits and vegetables containing vitamins, essential minerals and cellulose, all of which are important requirements in a balanced diet.

The magnitude of these imbalances may be seen in Figure 2.3. The Figure contrasts current diets, estimated on the basis of current production, with desirable diets. The contrast shows significant excesses in the production of sugar, cereals and, to a lesser extent, fats and oils, in contrast with a significant shortfall in the production of fruits, vegetables and, to a lesser extent, meat.

These apparent food imbalances must be analyzed from the perspective of their relationship with human health. Correcting them should be a long-term goal, the end point of a long adaptation process.

The necessary diet changes

The link between diet and human health has been generally established by science. Recent estimates suggest that 20% of premature deaths result primarily from heart disease, diabetes and diseases related to excess weight caused by nutritionally imbalanced diets^[6]. The three most frequent and important imbalances in the global diet, mentioned above, have regional peculiarities and differences, as well as differences by population strata and financial capacity. These are extremely significant and must be taken into account to characterize the problem and determine the necessary corrective actions.

Animal protein consumption is an important component in the diet of most high-income countries. Scientific evidence suggests that the excessive consumption of products of animal origin (meat and dairy products) is associated with cardiovascular diseases. How much is “excessive” is still a matter of debate. The United States, Canada, Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, and New Zealand, along with some European countries, where per capita annual meat consumption is around 100 kg, are no doubt in the excessive consumption range.

Figure 2.4 shows the consumption of various food categories in different world regions and their relationship with desirable or advisable consumption levels. It shows that meat consumption is far beyond desirable in some regions, primarily North America, Latin America and Europe, where there are also significant differences among countries and population income levels. In other regions, consumption stands below that recommended by science. This means that, in many developing countries, consumption of products of animal origin is meager and below the amounts proper to an adequate diet in terms of the essential amino-acids. These are necessary for human beings to develop normally and are found, almost exclusively, in products of animal origin.

Recently, the Belgian Royal Academy of Medicine has argued that pregnant and breast-feeding women and children younger than 14 years need to include products of animal origin in their diet, advising against vegan diets for that age bracket. This group of consumers represents close to 30% of the world population.^[7]

Accordingly, the questioning of animal-origin protein consumption should focus on the regions and consumer categories wherein consumption is actually excessive.

The evolution in consumption of proteins of animal origin may also be affected by progress made in developing laboratory substitutes based on vegetable products. The dietary virtues and negative externalities related to the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission (GGE) of the various technologies used to produce such meat substitutes have not yet been studied in depth.

Consumption of sugar and flour derived from grain products and sugar cane is high, both historically and at present. These have always been the main basis of most diets and the main source of energy.

The main reason is their low production cost, which has allowed their price per calorie unit to remain low in comparison to other foods. The possibility of having low-cost diets with a high calorie content was a key element to achieve a significant reduction in global food insecurity in recent years.

Moreover, a diet with an adequate carbohydrate content is also good for human health. This is particularly true of rural workers and other groups that make considerable physical effort, like those who perform sports activities.

In recent years, demand for this type of food has grown and diversified through new products offered by the food processing industry, such as packaged French fries, biscuits and soft drinks. These products are highly palatable and easy to manipulate and preserve, making them very convenient for the new feeding habits of urban life. These have been linked to the substantial increase of overweight in large sectors of the world population.

As may be seen in Figure II.5, the substantial percentage of overweight people is increasing rapidly and has exceeded the number of people with food insecurity. It may also be seen that the differences, according to income level by country, are significant, and that the problem is exacerbated as per capita income increases.

Overweight and its associated illnesses are linked to a number of attributes of modern life, such as sedentarism and the new eating habits, with diets based on high flour and sugar consumption. An important point to highlight is that this link between products with high energy value and the potential nutritional problems mentioned above is more a consequence of processed products consumption than of direct cereal, oilseed and sugar consumption. Suffice it to note that cereals were the dominant component in most of the world food cultures upon which the modern world developed.

Thus, the link between non-infectious diseases and diets rich in carbohydrates and salt basically refers to processed products, not to those derived from primary production. Consequently, the main goal of public policies should be to reduce the consumption of such processed products instead of the primary production of cereals and oilseeds, which are necessary to alleviate food insecurity in the poorest sectors of the world population.

Increasing the ingestion of fruits and vegetables is a recommendation with broad scientific support and should be part of the long-term goals in all countries. Such policies should recognize the significant differences between geographic regions and food cultures in the per capita consumption of such foods. In many regions, consumption of vegetables and fruits stands at nutritionally adequate levels; in others, a substantial increase needs to be achieved.

However, this will not be easy. Aside from changing the consumption patterns of large sectors of the world population, national food systems must also adapt to this new potential demand. For subjective demand to turn into actual demand — i.e., consumption —, vegetables need to be more physically available and accessible to consumers by lowering their relative prices, which are currently very high in comparison with other food items, such as grains and oilseed by-products.

5. The adjustment process: the competition between achieving food security in terms of calories and achieving appropriate food quality levels in nutritional terms

The goal of eliminating hunger in the world is far from being achieved. Partly as a result of the pandemic, current estimates indicate that there are over one billion underfed persons in a state of structural food insecurity. Accordingly, increasing food production at a sufficient pace is a key challenge for the global food system. This is necessary to address the present problem of hunger and also to meet the additional demand that will arise both from population growth and from higher per capita income.

Achieving this objective will require a significant effort at the global level to increase production and productivity throughout the entire food system and, complementarily, to reduce losses along the entire production, distribution and consumption process. As regards primary production, special focus must be placed on the countries and regions with the best natural resources and, thus, the ability to increase production in an efficient and environmentally sustainable manner.

With this objective in mind, it is important to note that the rapid expansion of food production achieved in the last 50 years was made possible by technological innovations in a few crops, mainly rice, corn, wheat, barley, potatoes, soybean and, to a lesser extent, the legume family, which is consumed directly (beans, chickpeas and lentils). This small group of primary products not only allowed for an increase in production, but also for a significant, if somewhat variable, reduction in food prices over the years (see Figure 2.2).

Replacing the consumption of highly caloric products, particularly of industrial origin, by a greater consumption of fruits and vegetables is an important and necessary step in a significant proportion of diets in the world. However, this substitution in the food basket is not so simple to carry out, for practical and economic reasons. Fruit and vegetable production and transport are far more complex and costly than those of other products, incurring much higher losses. Accordingly, consumer price per calorie is far higher in the case of fruits and vegetables than in the case of traditional crops; hence, their substitution would entail, at least in the short term, a very significant increase in the average cost of diets. Recent estimates suggest that a diet including fruits and vegetables in a nutritionally adequate proportion would cost about five times more than a traditional cereal-based diet.^[8]

This necessary transition will require at once significant changes in the consumers’ food culture and significant transformations in the production, transport and logistics systems. An important element of these transformations should be reducing losses, both post-harvest and in the distribution and consumption process.

6. The responsibility of the state in the orientation of consumption habits: available instruments

The desirable and necessary changes in consumption patterns will require public policies aimed at changing the cultural patterns and personal motivations that determine food demand. They must recognize, as a starting point, that food is a right of every individual consumer. The ultimate decision on what and how much to consume is, and must be, every consumer’s individual choice. Public policies seeking to change feeding habits should be limited and focused on three large areas of work:

1. Consumer education at schools and through public information campaigns. This must be based on sound scientific evidence indicating the nutritional needs of different population groups according to their age, occupation, health, etc., and the potential advantages and disadvantages of certain diets or food habits.
2. Information on the nutritional qualities of food, particularly in connection with processed products, to improve the consumers’ capacity to choose. This point focuses mainly on the development and implementation of a good labeling system for processed products. This subject is further discussed in Chapter III.
3. Prevention, through a sound use of medicine, to be one step ahead and reduce the need for curative practices. The objective is to avoid illnesses that may be prevented by good eating habits and a proper, timely use of drugs.

These three public policy instruments should be aimed at guiding consumer demand in consonance with the nutritional guidelines provided by science. This does not mean that the State cannot implement economic policies to promote or levy taxes to offset the positive and negative externalities that may be associated with certain products. This will be discussed, with particular reference to Latin America, in Chapter IV.

7. The role of international trade in improving global diets

International trade plays a fundamental role in world food security. Many regions and countries in the world do not have the natural resources required to produce the amount of food they need in an environmentally sustainable manner and at a reasonable cost. This situation is becoming more serious, particularly in the Middle East and in Asia, due to population growth and an increasing food demand arising from higher per capita incomes. International trade plays an important role by providing over 20% of the food consumed worldwide.

Current diets include a significant proportion of cereals, vegetable oils, products of animal origin and, to a lesser extent, legume seeds, which are easy to transport and, quantitatively, the main products of international trade. A well-organized international trade, without commercial barriers and with adequate infrastructure, is a key component of a global and efficient food system that allows for an ampler and more diverse food supply, fully satisfying consumer demand. The current situation with respect to these conditions of international trade is reasonably adequate, although there are still various restrictions in effect despite the efforts of exporting countries within the WTO.

Measures are being proposed within the context of the UN Food Systems Summit to achieve significant changes in food consumption patterns that would result in healthier diets.^[9] As argued in previous sections, such changes should focus on expanding the consumption of fruits and vegetables and reducing the consumption of processed products containing sugar, flour and animal-origin proteins. This occurs particularly in high-income countries and social strata, which have a higher average consumption than that recommended by science.

Science-backed diets include a greater proportion of fruits and vegetables, products whose transport and distribution are far more complex in five aspects: a) greater transport requirements, including the need for cold chains in some cases; b) less bulk storage capacity and, thus, greater packaging and conditioning requirements; c) more complex, difficult to comply sanitary requirements; d) greater post-harvest perishability until the first sale; and e) greater losses during transport and marketing.

All these conditions entail significant increases in the cost of transport and marketing and, hence, in the product’s unit price. This explains why the recommended diets would cost about five times more than the current ones. These characteristics and limitations of fruits and vegetables are a matter that requires priority attention. Research and international investment are essential elements in a global strategy aimed at improving diets worldwide.